Jinan's "Golden September and Silver October" real estate market is "weird" and waiters have more transaction volume

"Golden September and Silver October" is a golden period for the real estate market, auto market and other consumer goods retail industries. Since September, many real estate projects have focused on the "Golden September and Silver October" in an attempt to get rid of the market downturn caused by previous real estate market regulation. According to incomplete statistics, more than 50 properties on sale in the city have joined the discount promotion ranks. Compared with the enthusiasm of developers, home buyers still look a little cold. In a recent survey conducted by a real estate website, 60.6% of netizens chose "Not to" in the face of the question "Will you choose to buy a wedding house in the 'Golden September and Silver October'?"

In a previous survey on whether the "Golden September and Silver October" will come as scheduled, more than half of netizens chose "No". The survey found that high housing prices, small discount scale, and small options are the main reasons why netizens do not plan to buy a house in the past two months or are not optimistic about the "Golden September and Silver October".

Transactions rebounded

After the transaction volume in July hit a value since the real estate market regulation, the transaction volume of newly built residential buildings in Jinan City shrank significantly in August, and the transaction volume shrank particularly significantly after late August. Statistics show that 1,625 new residential units sold in the city in August, a decrease of about 8% from July.

This shrinkage continued into the September week. Statistics found that 226 new residential units were sold in the city in September, with an average daily transaction of only 32 units. However, the reporter's statistics found that from the second week of September, the city's new residential transactions seemed to have shown signs of rebounding again. From September 7 to 14, 410 new residential units were sold in 7 days, with an average daily transaction of 58.6 units, an increase of 81.4% month-on-month. The cumulative transaction volume of 636 units was sold in the first 14 days of September, and the transaction volume fell by 19.6% compared with the first 14 days of August.

Analysts believe that judging from sales in the past week, the property market seems to be moving out of its downturn since late August. The rebound in transactions is more obvious to the recent discounts on properties on sale and the additional promotion of new properties. However, from the perspective of the composition of home buyers, investment and improvement buyers who are not short of money are still the mainstream, and rigid demand for first-time home purchases is still waiting and see.

House prices are still rising

It has been nearly five months since the country introduced the property market regulation policy in mid-April. Data from the statistical department shows that since the real estate market regulation, housing prices have continued to rise.

Data released by the Shandong Investigation Team of the National Bureau of Statistics recently showed that Shandong's housing sales prices rose by 6.5% year-on-year in August, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points from July; and rose by 0.3% month-on-month. Specifically, in August, the prices of newly built houses in the province rose by 6.6% year-on-year, new residential houses rose by 6.7%, affordable housing rose by 3.0%, ordinary residential houses rose by 7.1%, new residential houses rose by 90 square meters and below rose by 7.8%; second-hand housing rose by 6.3%. From January to August, the cumulative year-on-year housing prices in the province increased by 7.1%, of which new houses rose by 7.3%, and second-hand houses rose by 6.7%. Compared with July, the year-on-year increase in housing prices in 13 of the 17 cities in the province has narrowed to varying degrees, of which Jinan has shrunk by 1.3 percentage points.

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that in August, the sales price of housing in our city rose by 5.8% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month. Among the 70 large and medium-sized cities counted, Jinan ranked 29th in terms of housing prices. Among them, the price of new houses rose by 6.8% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month; second-hand houses rose by 4.6% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month.

As of now, the Municipal Bureau of Statistics has not released statistical data on the sales prices and rise and fall of our city in August. However, industry insiders said that according to the data analysis of the National Bureau of Statistics, based on the previous sales price of houses in Jinan, it rose by 0.3% month-on-month, equivalent to a price increase of 20 yuan per square meter. Although the increase has indeed declined significantly, the momentum of continued rise in housing prices has not been truly curbed.

Speculative investment craze is worth noting

Regarding the current housing market situation, many citizens said they couldn't understand it during the interview. Some industry insiders were also confused. According to reports from local media, after September, housing transaction volume in many first- and second-tier cities rebounded sharply, and the impact of property market regulation policies seems to be weakening, so some people are worried that housing prices will rebound retaliatedly in the past two months and after.

Analysts believe that with the continuous rise in prices, inflation expectations still exist, and the large number of affordable housing built in various places cannot quench its near-term thirst due to the construction cycle problems. Speculative investment-based housing purchases in second-tier cities are gradually becoming hot, which is worthy of attention from all parties. Data from the Shandong Investigation Corps of the National Bureau of Statistics seem to confirm this view. In the 17 cities in the province, although the year-on-year increase in housing prices in 13 cities including Jinan and Qingdao has narrowed to varying degrees, it still maintained an increase of 1.5% to 6.3%, and the housing prices in Zibo rose by 9.7% year-on-year, 3.2 percentage points higher than the provincial average. The year-on-year increase in housing prices in the other four cities further expanded from July, among which Binzhou and Weifang both expanded by 0.5 percentage points, Linyi expanded by 0.4 percentage points, and Dezhou expanded by 0.2 percentage points.

Industry insiders and relevant experts believe that from the current perspective, the recovery of transaction volume and the continued rise in housing prices are posing challenges to the bottom line of national regulatory policies, and some places have introduced more severe regulatory measures for this purpose. Whether it is a developer or a home buyer, market changes should be treated prudently according to their own situation. Developers need to beware of the government's stricter regulatory policies due to rising transactions or disguised price increases. Home buyers need to prevent individual developers from using false or even fraudulent means to promote, open discounts and hidden price increases, and the difficulty in fulfilling related promises.